Rising costs, tighter margins: what bakeries should plan for in 2026

Well, here we are. It’s January already and the Christmas buzz feels like a lifetime ago. With most of us in the industry still slightly windswept from the increased productivity, it’s time to dust off the tinsel and get back to doing what we do best: baking quality products and building a future for ourselves, our families and our employees.

And as we look ahead to 2026, I can see plenty on the horizon that will shape how bakeries operate in the years ahead.

The year ahead in bakery cooling, proofing and storage

For many bakeries, 2026 is shaping up to be another year of tighter margins and tougher decisions. Rising employment costs, ongoing energy pressure and wider uncertainty in the UK economy are forcing businesses to continue to take a closer look at where money is being spent and where it is quietly being lost.

Cooling, proofing and storage sit right at the heart of this. These systems run constantly and underpin product quality, consistency and throughput. In my experience, when they are not operating as efficiently as they should the impact is rarely obvious straight away. Higher energy consumption, longer process times and increased risk of waste gradually erode your margins long before a fault ever appears and the maintenance team gets a call.

As labour costs continue to rise, inefficiencies elsewhere in the process become harder to absorb. Longer proofing times, inconsistent temperatures or avoidable downtime all place additional pressure on production teams, increasing strain on your people  as well as on your profitability.

This is also where automation can play a growing role. Well-designed retarder-prover systems can reduce labour input by automating the retarder-proofing cycle, helping bakeries maintain consistency while easing reliance on manual intervention.

And marginal gains can really make a difference. Small, targeted improvements in how cooling, proofing and storage systems are controlled, maintained and operated can deliver meaningful efficiency and performance improvements. Just as importantly, they can stabilise your output and reduce risk during peak production periods, when systems and teams are under the most pressure.

Regulation, refrigerants and informed decisions

Alongside these commercial pressures, regulatory change is moving closer and I can already see it influencing long-term decisions. But across the industry, we are also still seeing bakeries invest in cooling, proofing and refrigeration systems using refrigerants that are likely to become harder to support over the next few years.

It still amazes me how many businesses continue to invest in systems that are damaging from an environmental perspective, not to mention financially unsustainable in the long term. But my experience is that, in most cases, this is not a conscious decision. It comes down to a lack of clear, practical information around refrigerant policy, long-term availability and the true lifetime cost of ownership.

Even where a refrigerant remains legal, reduced availability, rising service costs and limited future flexibility can quickly turn what initially looked like a sensible investment into a long-term liability. Decisions made today can quietly lock businesses into higher operating costs and earlier-than-expected replacement.

This is where we see a part of our job to be supporting informed decision-making across the industry. At KOMA, we do not tell customers what they should do. Our role is to educate, to explain the realities of regulation, refrigerant strategy and system design, and to give customers the clarity they need to choose solutions that make sense commercially, operationally and over the full life of the system.

For me, the message is that the strongest bakeries are not those simply chasing the lowest upfront cost, but those making decisions that remain viable and defensible for years to come.

Why January is the moment to review and plan

January is one of the few points in the year where as bakers you might just have the space to step back and look properly at your operation. The Christmas rush has tested systems, teams and processes, and there is now a clear picture of what worked well and what did not.

This makes January the ideal time to review how your cooling, proofing and storage systems actually performed under pressure. Not just whether they stayed running, but whether they delivered the efficiency, consistency and throughput required when labour was stretched and energy costs were at their highest.

Reviewing this now will give you the ability to plan your solutions properly. When systems are under less stress, improvements can be scheduled around production, and decisions can be made proactively rather than being forced later by failures, inefficiency or compliance deadlines.

At KOMA, this is where we focus. We work with bakeries to turn last year’s lessons into practical solutions - whether that’s improving system performance, reducing labour dependency through automation, refining control strategies or planning phased investment that supports long-term growth. The objective is simple: deliver reliable, efficient systems that protect margins today and future-proof your business for what comes next.

Looking ahead to 2026

With employment costs rising, energy still under pressure and regulatory change getting closer, having clarity around cooling, proofing and storage has never been more important.

January is absolutely the right time to do that.

We are already carrying out site reviews focused on 2026 planning, looking at system performance, energy use, labour efficiency and long-term viability. These reviews are designed to identify where improvements and upgrades will deliver the greatest impact and to build a clear, practical roadmap for the year ahead.

If you want to turn last year’s lessons into solutions that genuinely strengthen your operation, now is the time to start that conversation.